April
26, 2005
1:20 am: Falcon I shipped to Vandenberg:
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Click
on the pictures for larger versions.
My thanks to SpaceX
for these images
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SpaceX shipped
the Falcon
I to Vandenberg this past Sunday morning for the hold down hotfire
test, which will take place in ten days.
1:20 am:
AF half-RLV... This week's Space
News (print version) reports on a program started by the Air
Force to develop a satellite launcher with a reusable, fly-back
first stage and an expendable second stage. The goal for the ARES
(Affordable Responsive Spacelift) is to launch satellites in the
2300kg-6800kg range to LEO for one-third to one-sixth the price
of current launchers. The vehicle could launch with just two days
notice.
The program, however, does not exactly rocket along. Study contracts
will be awarded this summer and then detailed design contracts would
go out in 2006. These would lead to development of a demonstrator
by 2010 for a total outlay of about $250M. They want an operational
system by 2018.
Jeff Foust, wearing his Futron
cap, was interviewed and expressed skepticism that $250M was sufficient
for a demonstrator by 2010 that could prove both first stage reusability
and two day launch notice capability. Some very pessimistic Congressional
staffers questioned whether launch rates will be high enough by
2018 to warrant development of a new rocket.
I wonder what will happen to this and other launcher programs if
the Falcon I and V vehicles succeed? They may not offer two day
launch response but they would certainly set a completely different
standard for development time scale and cost.
Anyway, here are some ARES related links I found by googling around:
1:20 am: News briefs ...
Rand Simberg offers his counterpoint
to Sam Dinkin's space transportation subsidy proposal and Sam responds.
...
... I certainly think a large
scale subsidy program for private launch services would be a fine
way to encourage large scale space settlement. But I doubt it will
happen before the private developers first prove with their own
money that more and more people will go into space if the costs
drop lower and lower. ...
... Of course, true mass transportation
to space will require new approaches like laser launch or space
elevators. Here's a long article about space elevators and NASA's
prize motivators: NASA
offers prize for 'space elevator' / Beams of light could propel
cargo, humans - SFGate - Apr.25.05.
...
... Keith Cowing wonders
about the need for missile defense expertise on NASA's exploration
systems advisory committee. (I see there is at least a little
bit of intellectual diversity and rebellion in the arts community:
Jeff
Skunk Baxter Profile * Jeff
"Skunk" Baxter: Balancing Music and Military Technology)
April
25, 2005
2:00 pm: News brief ... Recent
SpaceShow
interviews include those with Professor Allan Paull, program leader
for thje HyShot
scramjet test program at the University of Queensland, Australia,
and Alfred
Zaehringer rocket engineer since the 1940s and a author of several
books on rocketry. Both dispute the possibility of significantly
lower launch costs via chemical rockets.
11:15 am: ZERO-G flying high...
The parabolic flight business seems to be doing well so far according
to this article: Space
Tourism: Other states ready to challenge Florida in new frontier
- South Florida Business Journal/MSNBC.com - Apr.24.05.
Since opening for commercial operations in September, Zero-G
has done 40 flights carrying more than 1,000 tourists for $3,750
each. It has flown reality show contestants during episodes of
NBC's "The Apprentice" and Fox's "The Rebel Billionaire," and
also helped film stunt scenes for movies in the "Matrix" trilogy.
1:50 am: The latest Space
Review has
three space transport related articles: Sam Dinkin proposes a government
space transport subsidy program on the scale of the interstate highway
system: Don’t
wait for cheap orbital access by Sam Dinkin.
[Update 11:15 am: Sam has posted follow up remarks
at Transterrestrial where you can also comment on the article.]
...
... Jeff Foust analyzes last
week's House hearing
on commercial spaceflight: Two
scenarios and two concerns for personal spaceflight
...
... John Jurist looks at Human
factors in commercial suborbital flight: The limits of supplemental
oxygen.
CEV launcher with a shuttle rocket booster first stage.
(Image from ATK Thiokol.)
1:05 am:
Boosting CEV development ... The latest issue
of Aviation Week contains an article
(subscription only) about Mike Griffin wanting to close the "shuttle
replacement gap". AvWeek says that although the CEV proposals
from industry are due next week, CEV procurement will be slowed
down for now so as "to speed it up later." Griffin said
in his press conference last week that NASA would rethink the entire
program.
Much of the article deals with the study - Extending
Human Presence Into The Solar System - sponsored by the Planetary
Society and co-authored by a team of space notables led by Griffin
and Owen Garriott. Griffin referred
to the report in his press conference.
A key proposal in the report is to do the CEV development incrementally.
An initial "Block 1" version would only be intended for
LEO operations. In one proposal, a 13-15 ton Block 1 capsule would
ride a shuttle rocket booster (see above figure) and "a new
cryogenic upper stage based on existing rocket engine technology."
The reasoning is that this system could be developed more quickly
than a CEV on a Delta IV or Atlas V since the SRBs are already "human-rated".
A "Block 2" CEV would provide deep space transportation
capabilities.
AvWeek points to the following recommendation from the Planetary
Society study:
Orbiter retirement would be made as soon as the ISS U.S. Core
is completed (perhaps only 6 or 7 flights) and the smallest number
of additional flights necessary to satisfy our international partners’
ISS requirements. Money saved by early Orbiter retirement would
be used to accelerate the CEV development schedule to minimize
or eliminate any hiatus in U.S. capability to reach and return
from LEO.
The study also recommended that the CEV be compatible with "as
many launch vehicles as possible."
These ideas for the CEV, and also the question of a heavy-lift
launch vehicle (HLLV), will be studied further by "a program
evaluation and analysis 'shop' in [Griffin's] office headed by Scott
Pace, a veteran space policy analyst."
1:05 am: News briefs ...
Florida Today thinks the state should get back into the commercial
space race: Space
Innovators go eleswhere: Loss of X Prize Cup and red tape are making
Cape irrelevant to cosmic barnstormers - Florida Today - Apr.24.05
...
... Rutan continues to spread
the good word on space tourism: On
the edge of space tourism - The Register-Guard (Eugene, Oregon)
- Apr.24.05. (via spacetoday.net)
April
23, 2005
2:45 am: News briefs ...
The Space Access
Society 2005 conference semi-final agenda is included
in the latest update.
It's a great lineup from start to finish ...
... The daVinci
Project is testing engines but no flights this year: Rocket
developer pledges space travel by next year - The StarPhoenix/Space
Race News! - Apr.22.05 ...
... Is NASA still in its old
pre-Columbia, non-transparent culture mode? Report:
NASA changing shuttle risk standards - spacetoday.net - Apr.22.05.
NASA management doesn't think so: NASA
Disputes Claims of Lowered Risk Standards for Shuttle - space.com
- Apr.22.05.
April
22, 2005
2:35 am: News briefs ...
Michael Huang has
spotted a photo showing Burt Rutan meeting with Mike Griffin. Go
to the NASA
home page and click on Gallery: On the Job in the Administrator's
Corner. In the popup window click on image number 8. Michael
has one suggestion for what they are looking at but I think it is
a passenger contract for a ride on the SpaceShipTwo. ;
- ) ...
... Here is some background
info regarding Burt Rutan's complaints about AST spending too
much time processing a license for another company that he didn't
name. (Hint: his brother has been one of their test pilots.) ...
... I had missed this article
about Readdy's Senate Committee testimony in which he said NASA
would accelerate development of an ISS-capable CEV: NASA
to Accelerate Plans for Shuttle's Replacement - Space.com - Apr.20.05
(via Transterrestrial)
...
... And the White House science
advisor trusts Griffin to solve the "gap": Bush
Science Chief: Griffin Is Solution to NASA Human Space Flight "Gap"
- Frank Sietzen / SpaceRef -Apr.21.05
April
21, 2005
8:45 pm: Kistler updates...
Kistler Aerospace
has updated their website. They've added several recent press
releases dealing with the Chapter 11 situation. There is also
this AIAA conference paper: Commercial
Acquisition Strategies for Space Exploration - Kistler - February
2005 (pdf).
10:55 am: News briefs ...
Robert
Zimmerman notes the real possibility that there will be no visible
light/UV space telescope after Hubble and that ground based telescopes
can't replace its capabilities: Space
Watch: Is there life after Hubble? - UPI/WashTimes - Apr.21.05
...
... MSFC is rewarded for all
those successful launch vehicle development projects it carried
out in the past couple of decades: Marshall's
launch role is secure, chief says: New NASA administrator eased
concerns, King says - Huntsville Times - Apr.21.05. Guess this
puts NASA on a Fastrac
to the CEV ...
... The CEV will make work
in Louisiana too:
Michoud facility to craft prototype: Spaceship will replace shuttle
- Times-Picayune - Apr.21.05 ...
... Jeff Foust reviews Burt
Rutan's testimony to Congress yesterday: Mr.
Rutan goes to Washington - Space Politics - Apr.21.05 ...
... More about the hearing:
Private-space
vision shared with Congress: Burt Rutan says flights won' be just
for billionaires - MSBN - Apr.20.05 * Rutan:
Space Tourism Will Thrive, But Regulations Already Interfering -
Space.com - Apr.20.05 ...
... Check out these excellent
pictures of the Shuttle Discovery: D2X
at NASA KSC - Digital Photography Review - Apr.15.05 (via Boing
Boing). Up close it sure looks like it has been through some
rough rides.
April
20, 2005
2:25 pm: News briefs ...
NASA Watch has posted the written statements submitted for both
the Commercial
Space hearing and the Space
Station hearing held today on Capitol Hill ...
... Here's Reuters
on the Commercial Space hearing ...
... Irene Mona Klotz reports
on the X
PRIZE Cup event: Space
Race 2: The X Prize revisited - UPI/WashTimes - Apr.20.05. ...
.... The April
edition of the Rockets
Away! newsletter focuses on Spacedev
and includes an interview with Jim Benson. (Item via spacetoday.net)
12:15 pm: Commercial
space hearing ...
If you didn't see it live, I recommend watching the hearing
from the archive
(the video is not posted yet but I expect it will be soon).
The second panel discussed possible future applications for space.
Wolfgang Demish gave the skeptics viewpoint and said only space
communications businesses will be viable since he doesn't expect
launch prices to fall below current levels. He believes only radical
technology such as the space elevator will lower them.
Mr. Musk disputed that, saying that Falcon I will provide a factor
of five reduction below current US small launcher prices and another
reduction by five or so will come with the Falcon V. He noted that
with the Falcon I, SpaceX won a Malaysian satellite launch contract
over a Russian competitor. Even further cost reductions will come
with the SpaceX heavy lifter, the design of which will be presented
later this year. He said SpaceX was not a hobby and it will be cash
flow positive by 2006.
11:15 pm: Commercial
space hearing - update ...
Elon Musk also urges reform of ITAR ...
He said that super heavy lift and manned operations are the
ultimate aims of SpaceX. Falcon I provides a testbed to develop
technologies for these goals. ...
NASA won't be able to achieve its long term exploration goals
without a significant decrease in launch costs. ...
NASA has given little or no support to SpaceX but Musk expects
increased interest now that Mike Griffin is in charge.
10:45 pm: Commercial
space hearing - update ...
ITAR export controls are interfering with the technical exchanges
between Scaled and Virgin Galactic in Britain. Rutan says that on
the short term they are getting around the problem, if I understand
it correctly, by getting design funding from US sources.
In the longer term, Rutan believes that once vehicles are flying
routinely in the US, they will be able to convince regulators that
the vehicles can be exported just like airliners are exported without
fears of giving away technology of potential military interest.
10:20 pm: Commercial
space hearing - update ...
Will Whitehorn, president of Virgin Galactic, says 100 people have
agreed to pay the full $200k for the SS2 flights. ...
Burt Rutan is not happy with AST; prefers a FAA certification process.
He wants passenger safety to get a high priority in the regulatory
framework. ... He wants
to franchise SS2 to operators rather than sell the vehicles.
... He says he has gotten
lots of requests to fly the SS1 for science missions but he wants
to focus on the SS2 work.
10:20 pm: News briefs ...
Mike Griffin talks about CEV development and other topics in his
press conference yesterday: Transcript
of Press Conference - Spaceref - Apr.19.05 * NASA
Administrator Mike Griffin Hits the Ground Running - SpaceRef -
Apr.19.05...
... With regard to the topic
of heavy lift mentioned yesterday, Dan Schrimpsher says that we
should avoid "paralysis by analysis" and decide the issue one way
or the other and not waste a lot of time.: Heavy
Lift vs Multiple Lift : Why I write this blog - Space Pragmatism
- Apr.19.05 ...
... RtF looks to slip a bit:
Delays
Predicted for NASA's Next Shuttle Launch - Space.com - Apr.20.05
9:40 pm: Commercial space hearing ...
The webcast
of the House
Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics Hearing: Future Market for
Commercial Space is now underway.
April
19, 2005
6:45 pm: Insuring launches ... Following
up the discussions on April
14th and April
15th about launch costs, I wanted to clarify some aspects
of insurance.
I'm obviously no expert on this but from talking with a couple
of vehicle builders, here is how I understand the three broad categories
of insurance involved in the launch business:
- First party insurance covers the loss of a vehicle. This obviously
isn't very relevant to expendables but reusable vehicles will
need such coverage.
- Second party insurance covers the loss of a payload. It is typically
obtained by the payload owner and not included in the launch price.
The big comsat operators, for example, pay 10%-20% of the value
of their spacecraft to obtain coverage both for the launch and
for the estimated operating lifetime of the spacecraft.
If you were launching bulk cargo to the ISS or fuel to an orbiting
depot, you probably would not get payload insurance.
Coverage for passengers comes under the second party insurance
category.
- Third party insurance covers damages if the rocket crashes onto
property or people outside of the launch site. E.g. Mr. Musk says
third party insurance will cost Falcon I customers about $200k.
It turns out that the price of third party insurance doesn't increase
very much with the size of the vehicle. Essentially, insurers are
saying that the probability of maxing out the insurance claim if
a rocket falls on or near a bus or cruise ship isn't sensitive to
vehicle size.
This means that small vehicles are penalized by third party insurance
costs. Combining several small payloads onto a larger vehicle would
substantially reduce the cost of the individual third party insurance
payments.
Suborbital RLVs will encounter this third party insurance penalty
on small vehicles. The RLVs will also need vehicle insurance and,
if they are launching people, there will be the requirement for
liability insurance.
The Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act attempts to reduce the
liability risk of vehicle builders/operators for passenger injury
or death. Passengers will be fully informed of the dangers of rocket
flight and will sign waivers. However, with the US tort system there
is always the threat of a large award to a family claiming there
was some sort of negligence by the vehicle builder or operator.
We can hope, though, that insurance companies can be convinced to
provide coverage at a reasonable price.
6:45 pm: Virgin Galactic deposits ...
Sam Dinkin reports
that Virgin Galactic will soon be taking deposits for SS2 flights.
You can reserve a seat with a $20k
deposit for the $200k tickets. Here's the latest newsletter....
... Will Whitehorn, president
of Virgin Galactic, along with Burt Rutan, Elon Musk and others
will testify at tomorrow's House
Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics Hearing: Future Market for
Commercial Space. It will be available via webcast.
6:45 pm: News
briefs ... Rand Simberg points to an interesting
article on heavy lift vehicles - Heavy
Lift: Big Lever or Large Diameter Pipe Dream by Jon Berndt - AIAA
Horizon - March/April 2005 (3MB pdf) - and he also briefly discusses
Zubrin's New
Atlantic article mentioned earlier: It
Ain't Heavy, It's My Lifter - Transterrestrial Musings - Apr.19.05....
... From the AAIA article
I followed a link to the AIAA
Space Logistics Technical Committee (SLTC) website. This section
provides several interesting papers presented at a recent conference...
... The FAA/AST COMSTAC
meeting is scheduled for May 25-26 ...
... Here's more about the
HyShot
scramjet test program at the Univ. of Queensland, Australia: UQ
puts the wind up US in rocket race - The Courier-Mail - Apr.20.05
(via spacetoday.net)
. Don't forget that Allan Paull will be on the SpaceShow
this Thursday. ...
... Starchaser does some outreach:
Rocket
on flying visit to school - BBC - Apr.19.05.
10:50 am: News briefs ... John
Carmack reports on X
PRIZE Cup plans and development of bi-propllent engines: X-Prize
Cup, LOX Engine Work - Armadillo Aerospace - Apr.18.05....
... Here's your chance to participate
in space advocacy in Washington DC with the National Space Society:
Space Blitz
2005 - NSS Washington legislative conference, May 17-18, 2005
...
... The shuttle may leave the
station before Stafford and Covey get there:
Griffin: NASA leaders to make shuttle launch decision - spacetoday.net
- Apr.19.05 ...
... The mud is splashing out
from the Walter Anderson mess: $200,000,000
- Telecom Tycoon Used International Financial Labyrinth, Washington
Post - Washington Post - Apr.18.05. Note that FINDS (Foundation
for the International Non-governmental Development of Space) gave
money to a number of worthwhile leading edge projects such as laser
launch and IEC
fusion (e.g. see acknowledgments in this peer
reviewed paper) that couldn't easily get funding elsewhere.
FINDS stopped giving out money after 2001. Here's an archived
FINDS site (via NASA
Watch).
2:40 am: Spaceshows...
There are two interviews this week on the SpaceShow
that deal with space transport topics:
Thursday, April 21, 2005, 7:00-8:30 pm (Pacific Time) - Professor
Allan Paull, international program leader for HyShot
scramjet test program from Univ. of Queensland, Australia. .
Sunday, April 24, 2005, 12:00-1:30 pm (Pacific Time) - Jim Benson,
CEO and Chairman of SpaceDev.
Discussions of the shows can be found on the Spaceshow
Forum at Space
Investor.
2:40 am: News
briefs ... Congrats to Andews
Space on their NASA contract: Wins
$18.7M Contract to Build and Fly Technology Demonstration Spacecraft
- Andrews Space - Apr.18.05....
... I missed this earlier announcement
of a CEV contract: Andrews
Space, Inc. Wins $2M Contract Extension To Assist Nasa In Refining
Its Space Exploration Vision - Andrews Space - Apr.1.05 (pdf)...
... Robert Zubrin gives his
advice on the CEV: Getting
Space Exploration Right - The New Atlantis -Spring 2005
...
... Space travel for leisure:
The
Outer Limits: Once the stuff of science fiction, recreational space
travel is now a burgeoning industry. M. G. Lord straps in for a
spiritual, if stomach-churning, Zero-G ride - Travel + Leisure -
Jan.05 (via Transterrestrial.)
April
18, 2005
12:15 pm: News briefs... The
new NASA administrator should check out the list of space policy
options ranked by Sam Dinkin according to their benefit/cost ratios:
Ranking
space policy alternatives - The Space Review - Apr.18.05
...
... Eric Hedman wonders if
the VSE
came too late to tip the US space program in the right direction:
Is
the Vision for Space Exploration ten years too late? by Eric Hedman
- The Space Review - Apr.18.05 ...
... If the damage to a shuttle's
thermal protection system meant that it was too risky for a crew
to fly back to earth, it could still be worth a trying to bring
the vehicle back while the crew remained on the ISS: Could
shuttle land without crew aboard? NASA looks at how to get the orbiter
back if astronauts took refuge on the space station - OrlandoSentinel
- Apr.18.05
1:35 am: News briefs ... This
article reports on space tourism and Burt Rutan: A
vision in flight: Burt Rutan, the genius behind SpaceShipOne, believes
space tourism is destined to become a huge industry in the next
decade or so - OCRegister.com - Apr.17.05 (via spacetoday.net)
...
... And this article reports
on space tourism along with a general overview of commercial entrepreneurial
projects: Rocket
race - US News - Apr.25.05 (via spacetoday.net)
...
... I had not heard of this
Shuttle-ISS disaster scenario: Shuttle
thrusters potential hazard: 'Must fix' could destroy station - Florida
Today - Apr.17.05 ...
... I believe this headline
is an understatement: ESA
In No Hurry To Fund Russia's Project Kliper - RIA Novosti - Apr.17.05
...
1:35 am: Practice DARTs ...
It's part of the space business, or any tech business, that tests
of new systems often fail. You just keep working at it till you
get it right. However, DART costs so much - $110M - that multiple
repetition is not an option: DART
mission ends prematurely - spacetoday.net - Apr.17.05.
So I suggest that it would be more cost effective to fund student
nanosats instead. Projects like Bandit
at the Univ. of Washington and Fastrac
at the Univ. of Texas will achieve fairly sophisticated autonomous
operation. (See also this paper
on Bandit). With budgets in the $100k range, they could try 1100
times to work up to full autonomy for the price of one DART.
OK, I'm joking since I'm leaving out the price of the launches.
But don't forget that many student nanosats get free, or low priced,
piggyback rides.
April
17, 2005
2:10 am: A positive sign...
Space tourism market studies are fine but there is nothing like
seeing customers putting real money on the table. According to this
article - Space
available, for a price - DenverPost.com - Apr.17.05 (via spacetoday.net),
Eric Anderson of Space
Adventures says:
Space Adventures has taken $10,000 deposits from 150 people who
hope to ride on the first commercial suborbital space planes.
Anderson predicts these flights will become available in 2008.
I've previously heard that the number of people who had place
significant deposits at SA was less than 100. Great to see a specific
number posted and that the deposit is as high as $10k.
Note that these people have placed deposits before a commercial
suborbital space tourist vehicle of any kind has appeared. It doesn't
take a huge leap of faith to assume a lot more customers will step
up as soon one or more such vehicles begins to operate.
2:10 am: Armadillo XP Cup demo ...
The recent announcement
of an X PRIZE Cup event this October stated there would be "[d]emonstration
flights of reusable space vehicles by future X PRIZE CUP contenders
at the Las Cruces International Airport".
Well, we now know that one of these will be Armadillo
Aerospace. John Carmack posted at the Official
Armadillo Q&A - Space Race News that they will fly the "new
biprop vehicle" at the event. They plan "to perform several
15 second boosted hops to demonstrate rapid turnaround. They won't
go high, but on a biprop they will be very exciting!"
(See also his comments on the death of the "Black Armadillo" .)
2:10 am: News briefs ... Jeff
Foust reports that next Wednesday, April 20th there will be a House
Science Committee hearing on the "Future Market for Commercial
Space": House
hearing on commercial spaceflight - Space Politics - Apr.15.05.
It will sure be interesting to hear what Burt Rutan tells the assembled
Congresspersons. ...
... Alan Boyle comments on
the recent news releases from XCOR
and Beyond-Earth
Enterprises: Space
marketplace expands - COSMIC LOG /MSNBC.com - Apr.12.05
April
15, 2005
2:00 pm: More about orbital access costs
... With regard to the discussion yesterday about cost
estimates for orbital flights, I've been informed by Elon Musk that
Falcon I flights from Vandenberg will include the following charges:
- $5.9M base price
- + $600k range fee
- + $200k 3rd party insurance fee for commercial payloads (government
customers self-insure.)
There was an initial range qualification process on which SpaceX
spent several million dollars but the recurring range price is the
$600k number.
Range prices from the Marshall Island site may be lower but logistic
costs are higher so it isn't clear there will be a net savings.
(It is still a good site for equatorial launches.)
One additional item with respect to the fixed costs discussed by
the Kuennen
et al. paper. The "launch agency" fee they mention is what RSLP
(Rocket Systems Launch Program at Kirkland AFB) or other group charges
for overseeing a launch. That's not a charge that a commercial payload
on a Falcon I launched from a commercial spaceport would see. It's
the extra charge that, say, DARPA would pay to RSLP for overseeing
a launch.
Range and insurance costs will increase somewhat for the Falcon
V but not dramatically. ...
... So for the SpaceX
vehicles, the costs look more optmistic that what Jurist et al.
estimated. If the Falcon V development goals are achieved, launch
costs will be quite close to $1000/pound.
Of course, the authors can argue that they made reasonable assumptions
as to how a rocket business would be run that don't apply to SpaceX.
Mr. Musk wants to help expand the market and encourage space development
so SpaceX is charging less than a conventional aerospace company
would.
2:00 pm: News briefs ... The
AIAA issues a press release about The
Rocket Company: New
Book Inspired by the X-Prize Competition - FindLaw/AIAA PR - Apr.14.05.
I think it is a great idea to promote the book to students. The
presentation of the technical and business details within a novel
should make it quite appealing to them. ...
... And here is another rocket
education related item: X-Prize
education events coming - Alamogordo - Apr.14.05 ...
... Robert
Zimmerman profiles the new NASA administrator: Space
Watch: The right man for the job? - UPI - Apr.14.05
April
14, 2005
2:20 pm: Orbital access challenge ...
I found the paper When Physics, Economics, and Reality Collide:
The Challenge of Cheap Orbital Access by Jurist,
Livingston,
and Dinkin
to be quite interesting and informative. (The abstract and TOC were
posted here earlier
and the text is available in full at Transterrestrial
Musings).
It will be the subject of a session at the the Space
Access '05 Conference and will no doubt inspire a spirited discussion.
A number of the regular attendees have for many years been studying
and dealing directly with the topics covered in the paper and will
certainly offer some alternative views.
Here are some miscellaneous comments of my own:
- The paper does a good job of making the point that overhead
costs, particularly range fees and insurance, will come to dominate
no matter what assumptions one makes about hardware development.
- They reference a paper by Kuennen et al. presented at last year's
Utah Smallsat meeting and described by Jeff Foust in Reducing
launch costs: a lower limit? - TSR - Sept.27.05. Those authors
found that even if the cost of the rocket for their payloads went
to zero, there would still be a charge of around $7M for using
the launch facilities and the range system. And they were only
discussing unmanned government payloads and so didn't include
insurance.
- Note that SpaceX
does not include range fees in its price quotes. I believe lower
launch facility and range costs are the main reasons they are
looking to launch from the Marshall Islands. Reducing such costs
is also one of the reasons why some companies are going with air
launched systems.
- Obtaining "reasonably" priced insurance for commercial
RLV flights, especially those with passengers, will certainly
be a major challenge. (Pat Bahn of TGV
likes to say that amateur rocketeers discuss ISPs while pros discuss
insurance.)
- I think the paper takes too seriously the thesis
by G. Henry, who concluded that only a two-stage waverider system
would bring significantly lower launch costs. If Falcon I flies
this summer, a number of the major assumptions in that thesis
are immediately invalidated. He assumes, in particular, that there
are no fundamental flaws with the way NASA and mainstream aerospace
industry carry out hardware projects.
For example, he reviews the history of launch vehicle development
but ignores the DC-X. So he doesn't address the question of why
that project achieved its goals with a factor of ten less money
than if it had been carried out in a standard NASA / Aerospace
industry manner. Factors of ten should not be ignored.
He instead uses the Shuttle, X-33, X-34, etc as the standard benchmarks
and ignores the deeper problems with the way these projects were
handled.
It's as if in the 1970s, you ruled out the possibility of a low
cost, reliable, well performing small automobile because Detroit
had failed so badly with vehicles like the Corvair, Vega, and
Pinto. As we found out from the Japanese, there were, in fact,
profound flaws in the way the Detroit companies did things.
- I believe one should avoid the "if it could be done, it
would have been done by now" sorts of arguments. The "space
age" may be several decades old but the actual number of
serious attempts at developing low cost launch vehicles (i.e.
they got as far as bending some metal) is minuscule when compared
to, say, the number of different types of airplanes that appeared
before the DC-3 came along with just the right specs to make passenger
flights practical.
We need many more candidates to enter the evolutionary battle
before we will know the optimum set of features that wins the
struggle to provide the lowest launch costs.
2:20 pm: Alt.space advocacy suggestions....
Last year the alt.space community pushed successfully
for the passage of the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act. Rather
than now sit back and watch how things go, I suggest the following
new campaign goals.
- Convince Congress to upgrade and subsidize the range and launch
facilities for use by commercial flights. As indicated by the
paper discussed above, this could have a major impact on launch
costs.
- Lobby Congress to allocate $100M for suborbital science at NASA.
The National Academy of Sciences recommended that this area be
revitalized but NASA has instead steadily reduced funding for
sounding rocket flights. We should push for a renewal of this
area with the understanding that payloads would shift over to
suborbital RLVs or, in the case of experiments that need to reach
very high altitudes, to expendable 2nd stages launched by the
RLVs.
This would be a win-win for everybody:
- Great science could be done at a much lower cost than with
sounding rockets. Plus there would be the new capabilities
and benefits of frequent flights and a person there to monitor
and adjust the experiment.
- The suborbital companies would have a second market of significant
size to supplement space tourism.
- It will be a boon for education since it's much easier for
students to carry out suborbital projects within the time
span of their programs.
9:20 am: News briefs ... More
about the X
PRIZE Cup announcement: X
Prize Cup will come in October - Alamogordo News - Apr.13.05
...
... Congrats to Dr. Griffin:
Senate
unanimously confirms Griffin - spacetoday.net - Apr.14.05. I
hope that he makes a speech soon outlining his major goals and policies,
especially with respect to space transport and commercialization.
April
13, 2005
8:10 pm: News briefs ... Orbital
Recovery is making progress towards its first flight in 2008:
Successful
Design Review Validates the Technical Feasibility Of Orbital Recovery
Ltd.'s CX-OLEVTM Space Tug - Orbital Recovery Corp. - Apr.13.05.
(Why not use one of their tugs to boost the Hubble to a long term
storage orbit?) ...
... Mark Whittington says that
under Griffin's management, NASA might arrange the CEV program in
such a way that "smaller, entrepreneurial companies like t/Space
would be included in a separate program to develop piloted space
craft.": The
Return of Michael Griffin - The Washington Dispatch - Apr.13.05
...
... Irene Mona Klotz this time
examines the DART
robotic orbital rendezvous mission: Space
Race 2: Hooking up in space - UPI/WashTimes - Apr.13.05
6:05 pm: X Prize Cup debut ... The
XP
Cup is on for this year: X
Prize Cup Ready For October Liftoff - Space.com - Apr.13.05.*
Governor
Bill Richardson Announces X PRIZE CUP Events - X Prize Foundation
- Apr.13.05.
This part is particularly interesting:
"... demonstration flights from at least eight of X Prize
Cup team competitors. Also to be previewed will be the Tier-1
X Prize Rocket Racer ..."
So I wonder who these eight competitors are and what Rutan's Rocket
Racer will look like?
6:05 pm: Constellation rising ...
Iridium does the
phoenix trick: Iridium
Talking With Satellite Makers About Constellation Replenishment
- Aviation Week - Apr.13.05. Looks like a potential customer
for a low cost launcher:
Iridium Satellite LLC is profitable and is experiencing 20-25%
annual growth, with more than 114,000 subscribers as of the end
of last year. Lloyd expects subscribers to double by the end of
this decade, with revenues sufficient at that point for the company
to self-finance its satellite replacement effort.
12:05 pm: News briefs ... Henry
Vanderbilt has posted the Latest
Info on Our Upcoming Conference, Space Access '05, April 28-30,
Phoenix Arizona. Note that the availability of reduced rates
for the hotel rooms has been extended...
... I forgot to mention that
Griffin wants to speed up development of the CEV to reduce or eliminate
the gap in US human spaceflight capability. Also, he may reverse
O'Keefe's decision to cancel the Hubble repair mission. Here's more
info on his testimony: Griffin
promises to revisit Hubble decision - spacetoday.net - Apr.13.05
...
... XCOR announced
this week a NASA contract to develop a composite LOX tank. In the
coming years I expect we will see many advances in the use of light
and super-strong materials for use in spaceship structures: 'Extreme
Textiles' Come of Age - NY Times - Apr.12.05. ...
... Dan Schrimpsher likes
the "firm fixed-price contract" aspect of the XCOR contract.
It think it is perhaps an approach the old aerospace giants will
fail to appreciate.
2:10 am: News briefs ... Jeff
Foust describes the confirmation hearing for Mike Griffin as not
exactly hard-hitting: A
lovefest - Space Politics - Apr.12.05. More at Senate
Seeks to Expedite Vote to Confirm Griffin as NASA Administrator
- SpaceRef - Apr.12.05 ...
... Keith Cowing doesn't recommend
Alan Binder's big
book, but you can get a free abbreviated version of Binder's
views on NASA, and his surprisingly critical take on Mike Griffin,
in this interview
at the SpaceShow. I listened to it yesterday while jogging (with
the warm weather I'm catching up on the broadcasts) and Binder certainly
expresses a level of anger towards various NASA managers that sometimes
goes a bit overboard. On the other hand, he did succeed in getting
the Lunar Prospector
from a concept to an actual spacecraft orbiting the Moon, and for
a modest price as well. So it seems to me he is someone who deserves
a hearing. ...
... More Kliper
news: Russian
Kliper Could Fly into Space in 5 Years - RIA Novosti - Apr.12.05
...
... Because of some technical
advice given to China by two American comsat companies, Congress
applied onerous export regulations to the entire US space industry.
And what did this accomplish? A bonanza for the European space industry:
China
launches commercial communications satellite - spacetoday.net -
Apr.12.05 ...
... Aviation Week begins a
series on the RtF: Shuttle
To Debut Repair Technologies - Aviation Week - Apr.10.05
April
12, 2005
11:45 am: News briefs ... John
Jurist offers a list of warning signs when dealing with new space
ventures: Jurist’s
16 Commandments of Space Investing - Space Race News! - Apr.11.05
...
... Starchaser
has a new business structure - Starchaser PLC - and a new website.
Here are some pictures
of their Starchaser
4 under construction.
12:40 am: News storm ... Gee,
I take Monday off and sure enough, a whole bunch of great stuff
comes out. Firstly, in addition to the Beyond-Earth
agreement, there is more good news for XCOR:
12:40 am: XCOR lands NASA contract:
XCOR Aerospace Wins
$7 Million NASA Contract
Company to Develop Cryogenic Composite Tank
Mojave, CA, Monday, April 11, 2005: - Today, XCOR Aerospace
announced it has signed a contract with the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA) to develop a composite cryogenic
tank to hold liquid oxygen (LOX). This contract is part of NASA's
Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) program to
develop key technologies for manned exploration of the Moon, Mars
and beyond. The value of this firm fixed-price contract is $7
million with all options included, and will pay $1 million in
the first year.
"This is a wonderful opportunity for NASA and for XCOR," said
XCOR's president, Jeff Greason. "NASA is reaching out to small
businesses and this contract is an excellent example. Both private
industry and the government will benefit from this project, as
well as future users of space vehicles."
During the past two years, XCOR has researched cryogenic composite
materials and processes that will have immediate application to
this contract. XCOR will use its patented technology to build
a demonstration LOX tank for NASA. The LOX tank will be designed
to show dramatic weight savings by demonstrating the ability to
serve as both an insulated tank and vehicle structure. The materials
used in this tank retain their flexibility and toughness at cryogenic
temperatures and are inherently non-flammable, an important safety
feature for LOX tanks on future human spaceflight vehicles.
XCOR Aerospace, Inc. is a California corporation located in Mojave,
California. The company is in the business of developing and producing
safe, reliable and reusable rocket engines and rocket powered
vehicles. Additional information about XCOR Aerospace can be found
at www.xcor.com.
12:40 am: More storming... And
then Livingston,
Jurist,
and Dinkin
release what looks to be a significant paper on space access that
is getting a good buzz
( (I'm still working through it myself):
When
Physics, Economics, and Reality Collide
The Challenge of Cheap Orbital Access
Abstract:
Engineering problems are only part of the problem of achieving
a price per pound of less than $1,000 to low earth orbit (LEO).
Insurance and range costs alone prevent breaking that barrier
without substantial investment in demonstration flights and lobbying.
Achieving low cost to LEO also requires solving problems associated
with limitations of chemical rockets, lack of business planning,
and failure to identify a workable path that will take us from
an immature to a mature launch industry. A mature launch industry
would exhibit low cost to LEO and significant flight rates by
reusable vehicles with long lifetimes. When today's factors, limitations,
and reality denials are combined, we believe that they prolong
the difficulties of achieving low cost, routine flights to LEO.
In other words, we end up inadvertently supporting the status
quo.
I. Abstract
II. Introduction
III. Basic Concepts
IV. Methodology
V. Expendable Launch Vehicles
VI. Reusable Launch Vehicles
VII. Discussion
A. Merging the rocket and the payload
B. Market decision-making and economic factors
1. Interest
2. Insurance
3. Research and Development
4. Lobbying to reduce range costs and obtain regulatory relief
5. Potential threats
D. The due diligence process
1. Subjective factors
2. Objective factors
3. Venture capitalists
4. Reality versus speculation
5. Polluting the pond
VIII. Conclusions
IX. References
X. The Authors
XI. Appendix 1: Baseline Models
XII. Appendix 2: Propellant Costs
Paper
(MS Word Doc file) available via Transterrestrial
Musings.
12:40 am: More news... Plus
there were the usual set of great articles on the latest issue of
the Space Review:
- Michael Huang
has written one of the most cogent articles in support of human
spaceflight that I've seen for a long time: The
top three reasons for humans in space. Individually the three
reasons are well know to space advocates, but he has packed them
into a short, articulate format here that really gets the message
across. In fact, space advocates should repeat his "To work,
To live, To survive" mantra in all human spaceflight discussions
from now on. (I see the article has aroused a vigorous response
on Slashdot.).
- In the "To Work" category, Sam Dinkin has an article
on solar power from the Moon: Rectifying
the case for beaming Lunar solar power and an interview with
the concept's main proponent: Reaping
powerful ideas from a luminary.
(Note: Instead of pushing now for full deployment for $300B-500B.
I would emphasize incremental steps, e.g. demo systems that prove
the concept and offer benefits such as providing abundant lunar
power for lunar bases and for other space based users.)
Check out also the interview
with Criswell on the SpaceShow from Dec. 7, 2004.
- Taylor Dinerman meanwhile reports on the trustworthiness of
the price quotes for the European Galileo GPS system: What
will Galileo cost?.
12:40 am: More news briefs ...
The SpaceShow
interview with Henry Vanderbilt of the Space
Access Society is now available online...
... Check out the Space
Pragmatism blog from Dan Schrimpsher who tells me he wants to
try to convince regular folks to get "on board with our journey
into the solar system".
April
11, 2005
1:25 am: Beyond-Earth and XCOR collaboration:
Beyond-Earth Enterprises
and XCOR Aerospace Announce Agreement to Produce Small Payload
Launch Vehicles for Sub-Orbital Travel
Colorado Springs, Colorado, April 11 Studies show that 70 percent
of Americans would buy a flight into space if they had the chance
and the cost was reasonable. Now a cooperative agreement between
Beyond-Earth
Enterprises and XCOR
Aerospace will develop greater accessibility to space for
everyone in a safe, reliable, and affordable manner. The agreement
will allow Beyond-Earth to purchase manufactured components from
XCOR for standardized production of small payload launch vehicles.
Beyond-Earth Enterprises is a commercial firm dedicated to providing
small payload launch capabilities at affordable rates. XCOR Aerospace,
Inc., is a small, private company with proven expertise in the
production of high quality rocket engines and rocket powered vehicles.
Joe Latrell, CEO of Beyond-Earth Enterprises, says, "This is the
first step toward making space accessible for commercial ventures.
We want to be instrumental in creating standardized production
components. When an airline company or package delivery service
needs a new vehicle, they don't build it, they buy it from a company
who specializes in airplane or truck production." Latrell says
Beyond-Earth is highly motivated to encourage the average American
to reach for space again. "We want the public to realize that
they could go to space someday very soon."
"Now is a great time for cooperative arrangements like this,"
says Jeff Greason, CEO of XCOR. "The commercial applications from
scientific research to space tourism are within reach. Cooperation
such as this is essential to making that happen. Beyond-Earth
and XCOR will each focus on their areas of expertise while expanding
the overall market for space related products."
The agreement lets XCOR focus on rocket engine development, one
of its core strengths, while allowing Beyond-Earth to concentrate
on developing inexpensive alternatives to existing space launch
systems and help revitalize the American public's interest in
space. Beyond-Earth and XCOR expect this unique alliance to prove
the reliability, safety, and affordability of complete rocket
systems. The goal is profitable, low-cost transportation vehicles
to Earth orbit.
About XCOR Aerospace, Inc.:
XCOR Aerospace develops and produces safe, reliable and reusable
rocket engines and rocket powered vehicles. Test pilot Dick Rutan
has flown its operations demonstrator, the rocket-powered test
vehicle "EZ-Rocket" in recent demonstration flights at the EAA
AirVenture convention at Oshkosh, WS. XCOR holds the second FAA
issued Reusable Launch Vehicle License and continues to be engaged
in private and government research projects for rocket engines
and rocket engine components. XCOR Aerospace is a California corporation
located in Mojave, California. For more information, visit www.xcor.com.
About Beyond-Earth Enterprises:
Beyond-Earth is leading the way to the commercialization of space
by providing small payload launch capabilities at affordable rates.
The Beyond-Earth officers are committed to revitalizing the American
public's interest in space. They encourage space development by
conducting educational demonstrations and lectures at area schools.
The company's headquarters are in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Additional information can be found at www.beyond-earth.com.
1:25 am: Orbital Access Workshop announcement:
