Elon Musk begins the second presentation:
- Update on SpaceX
- Reviews the reasons he started the company (it wasn't to make a small fortune from a large one.)
- Tesla and Solar City take up about 25% of his time. Rest on SpaceX
- Expanding life and humanity to space and new planets will be as significant as the move of life from the sea to land.
- Window to accomplish this is just now starting to crack open.
- Optimistic about the future but insurance on the worst happening is one reason for expansion into space.
- Low probabilty events are hard to appreciate but must be taken seriously.
- If space access isn't cheaper, all this won't be feasible.
- Govt. isn't good at cost optimization.
- Expect to demonstrate ISS cargo delivery before the Shuttle retires.
- Started company 6 years ago.
- Lots of easier ways to make money.
- Got a group together to go over the fundamentals of what drives costs.
- Recruited group of top rate people
- Plan was to build a small rocket on way to a big rocket.
- Rocket supply infrastructure is shallow and expensive.
- So decided to build most of the components internally.
- Several major parts to a rocket and all must be reduced in cost but that will only accomplish minor overall reductions.
- Reusability is absolutely critical to lowering costs.
- (Aside: He was one of the first to buy a ticket on SS2.)
- Shuttle only partially reusable. Billion dollar per flight range. More than expendables.
- Reusablity for orbital flight is difficult with the tremendous energies involved.
- With Falcon 1, first stage is reusable and second is expendable.
- Making second stage for Falcon 9 reusable is difficult. - TPS, parachutes, seawater hardening, etc.
- Aspiring to make F9 the first fully reusable vehicle and reasonably confident that it will work.
- Hope the next F1 flight in late June will prove reusability of its first stage.
- Hope to have first F9 at the Cape by end of 2008 and first flight early in the year. COTS flights by end of the year.
Questions:
- ISS cargo market size? ATV not sufficient to supply the ISS. Plenty more cargo needs to be delivered. Dragon can also return cargo to earth, which the other vehicles cannot do after Shuttle retires. Can also bring unpressurized cargo.
- Cost per kg? Particular orbit, satellite, pressurized/unpressurized, etc parameters all affect cost estimates. For ISS delivery, its roughly $10k/lb. In range of $80M per flight.
- $1500/lb on F9 without reusabilty for a satellite to LEO equatorial. At least 50% savings with reusability. Aspire long range to 80% savings with reusability so get to $300/lb.
- F9 has best mass ratio of any rocket in the world - 94%-95%
- Scheduling problems? Statements in first 2 years of the company should be disregarded due to idiocy.
- Starting in 2002. Full pad test by 2005. Then forced to move from Vandenburg to Marshall Islands. '
- The first test terminated due to engine fire.
- In 2007, the second test got close to orbit (no satellite on board) but slush problems prevented orbit. They got 90% of the test data they wanted.
- Could have put in slosh baffles and done another flight within 4 or 5 months.
- Instead focused on development of improved engine, which turned out to take longer than expected.
- Falcon 9 will be using same engine so that won't be an issue for its schedule.
- Other overlap, e.g. in avionics, between F1 and F9.
- So number of unknowns for F9 will be less than with first flights with F1.
Manned Dragon? Schedule depends on NASA option D. If they approve that, could have crew version by 2011. Otherwise, with internal funding it will take longer (~2013). Difference between cargo Dragon and a crew version are fairly minor. Need to develop an escape rocket.
- Tickets ~$13M per seat without reusability. 50-80% lower with reusability.