The Senate hearing on commercial launch services has started. Notes are also available at
/-- twitter.com/flighthyperbola
/-- twitter.com/jeff_foust

Here are my notes:

Sen. Bill Nelson:
- Nelson apologizes for starting late due to a vote.
- Says the impression that the new budget will devaste human spaceflight is wrong.
- Looking forward to Pres. Obama's visit to Florida to discuss NASA at the summit.
- Good news in budget includes increased funding and continuing ISS past 2015.
- New NASA plan will use commercial competition to provide new crew and cargo transport.
- Suggests that a fifth Shuttle flight could be easily provided using the backup Shuttle for the currently planned final fourth flight. (Believes a back up is no longer needed.)
- Would be 2 to 2.5 years before another Shuttle flight could happen due to time to restart ET assembly.
- Competitive procurement of crew transport is the proposed way to provide NASA access to LEO.
- Introduces the panel.

Thomas Stafford - former astronaut (testimony)
- Addresses Augustine committee findings.
- Not sufficient funding for Constellation.
- Talked to members. Agreed with most of their report but not all of it.
- Extension of ISS is important.
- Differentiates commercial crew and commercial cargo delivery.
- Cites lateness of ATV and HTV vehicles
- Discusses the human rating of the Titan missile that he used in Gemini.
- Air Force resisted changes to the Titan.
- Reliability and safety have to be demonstrated
- Augustine committee took safety as given
- Human spaceflight systems more demanding that other programs like jet fighter.
- Augustine panel noted high program risk with commercial providers.
- Does not believe it can happen in any short period of time.

Bryon D. O'Connor - NASA (testimony)
- Applying safety standards to industry vehicles will be rigorous and continuous.
- Will issue a FYI soon for commercial crew transport proposals.


George Neld - FAA Commercial Space Transportation (testimony)
- reviews role of FAA in commercial space in past 25 years.
- top priority is safety.
- Regulations, licensing, permits, etc.
- 201 launches with no loss of life or damage to facilities.
- Issued regs on human commercial spaceflight.
- Working with half a dozen companies developing vehicles for taking people to edge of space.
- Confident that within a few years there will be several suborbital space companies flying people several times per week.
- Believes there is sufficient framework to carry out safe orbital operations for cargo missions
- Will attain considerable experience with commercial cargo before crew transport is attempted.


Mr. Malcolm L. Peterson (testimony)
- Would put up Soyuz safety record to NASA record. NASA safety is not unparalleled.
- Have the equivalent of a commercial access to the ISS right now - called Soyuz.
- Companies will have to compete with Soyuz.
- Worries about sustained support by NASA could undermine investment in the private efforts.
- Notes that prior administration had planned to withdraw support for ISS.
- Investment community may require too high off a return
- Operations cost of NASA human spaceflight is very high.
- Thinks commercial cargo will succeed, has doubts about commercial crew.

Michael C. Gass - ULA (testimony)
- Describes history of ULA, and Atlas and Delta
- Atlas and other rockets have evolved considerably since John Glenn flew on an Atlas.
- ULA offers its support for the administration's plan.
- Can make human spaceflight sustainable and affordable.
- Supports technology investments in the plan.
- Commercial markets for EELVs were insufficient so suggest commercial crew markets may also not be sufficient alone.
- Will work with partnerships to provide EELVs in support of crew launch.
- Can their rockets be human rated - absolutely. Will be ready before the crew modules are ready.
- Currently launch very high value payloads.
- Changes to rockets will be minimal.
- Will need to add sensor system to trigger launch escape system.
- EELVs offer a near term solution to NASA's crew transport needs.

Frank L. Culbertson Jr. - Orbital (testimony)
- As a former astronaut knows that safety is a key issue.
- Orbital believes US industry is capable of providing safe and reliable crew transport by 2015.
- Can work together with NASA to obtain sufficient safety standards.
- Would be happy to ride on an Orbital Sciences crew transport.
- Indemnification, insurance etc are important issues.
- Orbital making progress towards cargo delivery.
- First launch set for next year at Wallops Island.
- ISS is ideal platform for developing deep space capabilities.
- Need robust supply line for operations on the Moon.
- Welcomes the current debate on space policy.

Ms. Gwynne Shotwell - SpaceX (testimony)
- SpaceX is a strong supporter of the new policy.
- SpaceX believes it can get crew to ISS 3 years after contract award.
- Falcon 9/Dragon is designed for crew operations and will prove itself with the cargo missions.
- ISS operations have required many of the human rating requirements already.
- F9/Dragon will have flown many times before crews are flown.
- Plenty of time to resolve any design problems.
- Record of Atlas/Delta show there's nothing inherently unsafe in commercial transports
- Falcon 9 has capability of engine out and still get to orbit.
- Welcome NASA human rating standards.
- NASA can focus on the frontier by letting commercial companies do LEO access.

Sen. Hutchinson
- Discusses her statement.
- Shuttle extension a key proposal.
- Support commercial transport development.
- Gap too important not to have a backup
- Wants govt system until commercial efforts ready.
- Has to return to floor of Senate.

Nelson
- Asks Stafford about what will be needed to achieve safety for commercial
Stafford: Must achieve 3 nines of safety. NASA insight and oversight.
O'Connor: Will work with industry on development of standards.

- Asks Peterson if $6B enough?
Peterson: A great question. Doesn't know.
Needs numbers on the table.
Don't have a good record of program cost estimations.

Cargo?
Peterson: Routinely deliver spacecraft. Would proceed with ISS cargo delivery that without hesitation.

What about using $6B for development of a HLV for Mars?
Gass: Need to decide on a program and give it sufficient long term support.

How have Russians mitigated risks?
O'Connor: Took time to learn their processes and methods.
Did not lay requirements on their systems.
Gradually gained confidence in their systems.
Found equivalences rather than exact matches to NASA requirements.
Stafford: Reviews experience with working with Soviets.

How will seat prices be determined?
Stafford: Currently around $50M on Soyuz and may go up.
Petterson: Won't be able to compete against Soyuz price.
Couldn't launch an equivalent vehicle for less than $400M.

Better to use the $6B for an HLV:
Petterson: Doesn't understand why Augustine recommendation to use Orion as backup not taken.

Shotwell: Will guarantee seat prices less than $50M.
For $6B could have up to 10 suppliers if same costs as SpaceX.

Culbertson: estimates upper bound on development at $3B.
Each flight could be $300M-$400M if all ancillary costs included.
Need either more up front govt investment or guarantee of more flights than currently planned.

Comparisons to ATV/HTV?
Culbertson: Well within the capability of US industry to do such cargo delivery.
Stafford: HTV costs couple billion Euros and was couple years late.

[In recess so Nelson can go to vote on the Senate floor.]

4:55pm Hearing restarts
Neld: Coming experience with suborbital manned and cargo unmanned will provide lots of info on orbital manned capability.

Should FAA be involved in commercial transport to ISS
Neld: Have worked well so far with NASA and expect to continuing to do that.

Neld: Congress has given FAA authority to regulate commercial passenger flights.
Stafford: NASA crew operation should be independent of FAA.

Crew size options:
Gass: Have looked at different crew configurations.
Looked at Orion lite and other crew vehicles.

How long would it take ULA to do a CEV system?
Gass: Unmanned test flight within 3 years. Human flights in 4 years.
Simpler crew vehicle could speed that up.

Culbertson: Expects Soyuz needed till 2015.

What about slips?
Shotwell: Feel confident about the 3 year estimate.
Human spaceflight is not starting from scratch because of the large overlap with the cargo program.

Culbertson: Don't have a time line for human spaceflight at this time.
Need the RFI to know what the requirements are.

What if ISS had to be vacated, what happens to your firms?
Gass: We deal with these sort of risks as part of our plans.
Difficult to attract external "rational" investment without govt guarantee.

Culbertson: Loss of ISS would definitely impact Orbital but not threaten the company.
Would work with NASA to figure out how to restore the Station.

Shotwell: Markets for SpaceX are broad. Loss of ISS cargo would be a hit but not devastating.
Have 30 launches total. 24 Falcon 9.
About ready to sign another 10 or so launches.

Final Statements:
Stafford: Since Gemini, experience has been that programs cost more and take longer than predicted.

Peterson: Put sufficient funds on the table for the program to continue if it runs into problems.
Also, look at some form of protection of investors.

Gass: Have been examples in space industry of projects delivered on time and in budget.
Should proceed with commercial operations in a measured manner.